Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Sep 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
September 15, 2008
Filed under , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately unsettled to active. An isolated quiet period was observed at 15/0000Z. The increase in activity is in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft indicated an increase from approximately 390 km/s to 610 km/s during the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions on day one (16 September). Predominately quiet with isolated unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (17-18 September) as the coronal hole effects subside.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Sep 068
  • Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 066/066/066
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/10/10
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.