Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Sep 2007

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2007 Sep 15 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the forecast period, 16 – 18 September.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Sep 068
• Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01