Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the past 24 hours was a B8 flare from Region 908 (S13W60) at 15/0622Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, with possible active periods on 18 September due to an expected coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Sep 080
• Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 080/080/078
• 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 005/005-008/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/25
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05