Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Sep 2003

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity continued low. Intermittent C-class
subflares came from Region 456 (S08W88), now nearing the west limb.
Newly assigned Region 460 (N16E75) rotated into view. Little else of
significance occurred.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
geosynchronous electron flux remained high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled through 17 September. The effects
of a high speed solar wind stream are anticipated 18 September, as
active to minor storm conditions are probable.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Sep 097
• Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 100/100/100
• 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 010/010-010/015-020/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/30/50
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/40/50
• Minor storm 15/15/25
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05