Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Sep 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
105 (S07W31) produced the largest flare during the period, an M1/Sf
flare which occurred at 15/1738 UTC with associated minor discrete
radio bursts. Slow decay continues in this region as satellite
spots and penumbral coverage diminish. Region 114 (S12W15) produced
a single optically correlated flare today, a C3/Sf flare occurring
at 15/1538 UTC. The delta magnetic class spot seen yesterday is no
longer evident, decay of spot cluster continues. Region 103
(N16W84) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/0926 UTC and has begun to exit
the visible disk. New Regions 116 (S09E75) and 117 (N15E05) were
assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded event threshold today at 15/1140
UTC (max flux 1620 pfu's at 15/1625 UTC). Levels remain above event
threshold at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux may remain elevated throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 188
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 185/180/180
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01