Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were several C-class
events during the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a
long-duration C4 at 1542Z from newly numbered Region 1593 (N17E78).
Region 1593 was the dominant producer of C-class level activity
although Region 1591 (N07E32) also contributed. Region 1591 showed a
slight growth trend during the period. New Region 1594 (S26E61) was
numbered today and is a small, simple bipolar region. The other
numbered regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event from either Region 1591
or Region 1593.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The solar wind velocity at the ACE spacecraft showed a steady
downward trend from initial values around 495 km/s to end-of-day
values near 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 137
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05