Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions
1112 (S19W15), 1113 (N17E50), and newly numbered 1115 (S28E63) each
produced isolated low-level B-class flares. Regions 1113 and 1115
were both H-type spots and exhibited no significant changes. Region
1112 showed minor spot growth during the period. A slow CME
(estimated plane-of-sky velocity 140 km/s) was evident in SOHO and
STEREO coronagraph images – first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 at
14/1348Z. The CME had a northwestward trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (16 – 18 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. However, ACE solar
wind data indicated a CME passage around 15/0300Z, likely associated
with the filament eruption observed on 10 October. Solar wind
changes associated with the CME passage included increased
velocities (277 to 354 km/s), increased IMF Bt (peak 09 nT at
15/0919Z), and intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum
deflection -07 nT at 15/1725Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for active levels, on day 1 (16 October) as the CME passage
continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during
days 2 and 3 (17 – 18 October).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 082
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01