Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
October 15, 2009
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. At approximately 15/0500Z, ACE
satellite measurements observed increases in temperature, density
and velocity, all indicative of a CIR in advance of a weak coronal
hole wind stream. Wind speeds increased from a low of about 300
km/s to near 430 km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF indicated a
weak southward trend of near -5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (16 October) as
the equatorward extension of the northern crown coronal hole
continues to influence the field. Activity is expected to be mostly
quiet on days 2 and 3 (17 – 18 October) as coronal hole effects
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 070
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.