Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. Region 1005 (N26W15) was quiet and stable during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels all three days of the forecast period (16 – 18 October).

III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Oct 071
• Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 072/073/073
• 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05