Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed has been decreasing throughout most of the day as the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (16 – 18 October).

III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Oct 071
• Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 012/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01