Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Oct 15 2204 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 815 (N08E60) grew slightly and was the only active region on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at ACE at 15/0000 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet. Unsettled and isolated active conditions are possible on 16 October from the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Oct 080
- Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 001/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 002/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
