Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 15 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 682 (S14E37), the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced several B-class
flares. This region showed little change over the past 24 hours. It
currently exhibits minor magnetic complexity with approximately 250
millionths of white light area coverage. No other significant
activity or changes were noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 has potential for isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began
the period near 540 km/s, but gradually declined to 450 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 18 Oct due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 089
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 012/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/010-008/010-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05