Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2003

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Oct 15 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A new region was
numbered today as Region 480 (N20W26).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions with
isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes. These effects
are the result of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions for 16-17
October. Unsettled to active levels are expected for 18 October.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Oct 096
• Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 100/105/105
• 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 033/048
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 030/042
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 025/030-020/030-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/35/25
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/45/35
• Minor storm 25/25/15
• Major-severe storm 15/15/10