Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to two M-class flares
observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20W84) produced an M1/Sf
at 15/0912Z, while Region 1346 (S18E27) produced an M1/Sf at
15/1243Z. A 13 degree long filament, centered near S24W37, was
first observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at about 14/1940Z.
At 14/2036Z, LASCO C2 imagery observed a SW directed CME with a
plane-of-sky speed estimated at about 630 km/s. Initial analysis
indicates a potential Earth-directed component from this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (16 –
18 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (16 – 17 November).
By day three (18 November), the field is expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, in response to a
possible glancing blow from the CME observed late on 14 November.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 148
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 150/145/150
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 004/005-004/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 06/06/33
Minor storm 01/01/11
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/45
Minor storm 01/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05