Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N32 W65) continues to decay.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from region Region 1008.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Nov 068
• Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 00/00/00

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 00/00/00