Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. A CME departed the southwest limb late on 14 November, but was not Earth-directed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with periods of active to minor storm levels detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Nov 069
• Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 009/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01