Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 15 2210 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2006

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A. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 924 (S08E28) produced a C1 flare on 15/1901Z. This region was in decay, but new trailer sunspots emerged late in the period. Region 923 (S05W20) still maintains considerable size, but is in a slow decay phase. Region 925 (S05E38) is a small, simple beta group, which exhibited slight growth.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. Regions 923 and 924 have potential for isolated C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active. A recurrent high speed stream is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods over the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Nov 096
• Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/010-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/40/30
• Minor storm 15/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05