Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Nov 2005
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S08E41) produced two M-class flares, an M1.0 at 2200Z and an M1.4 at 1751Z, along with numerous C- and B-class flares. Region 822 continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The region has retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The remainder of the disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for 16 November, with a chance for isolated active periods. The elevated levels are expected due to a sector boundary crossing and a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected for 17-18 November.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Nov 100
- Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 105/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 009/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 25/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
