Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Nov 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

November 15, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 15 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
700 (N04W53) produced two C-class flares during the period, a C1.2
that occurred at 15/0626Z and a C1.5 occurring at 15/0925Z.
Magnetic analysis indicates that the region continues to carry a
beta-gamma classification while the sunspot area has more than
doubled since yesterday. Regions 699 (S13W10) and 701 (S15E17)
underwent a slight growth in magnetic structure although neither of
these groups showed any appreciable change in sunspot coverage. No
new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 700 has a slight chance of producing an isolated
M-class flare based on the magnetic structure of the region.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
was slightly elevated today as the flux continues to drop to
background levels from the activity that ended on 13 November.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov