Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 15, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 15 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 501(N03E48)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 15/1912Z and a number of smaller C and
B-class flares. The region maintains its beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 503(N17E09) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity on 16 and 17
November. Old Region 488(N08, L=290) is expected to return to the
visible disk on 18 November and could have M-class potential.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. At
approximately 0520Z, a shock was observed passing the NASA/ACE
spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased to 750 km/s and Bz was
southward for a four hour period near -10nT. Minor to major storm
levels were observed as a result of the shock combined with
continued high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The effects of
the large coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue.
Minor storm levels are expected, with a chance of isolated major
storm levels.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

  • Class M 40/40/45
  • Class X 05/05/10
  • Proton 05/05/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Nov 098
  • Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 105/105/125
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 021/037
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 030/035
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 025/030-025/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/35
  • Minor storm 35/35/30
  • Major-severe storm 20/20/15

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/30
  • Minor storm 45/45/40
  • Major-severe storm 35/35/30

SpaceRef staff editor.