Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Previously active Region 1476
(N10W56) continued to decay over the past 24 hours, while producing
a few nominal C-class flares. New Region 1485 (S19E65) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (16-18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days (16-18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 129
Predicted 16 May-18 May 125/125/122
90 Day Mean 15 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 008/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01