Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1208 (N11W48) produced an isolated C1/Sf at 15/1620Z. This region
grew in area and is classified as an Eso type sunspot group. Region
1214 (S21E01) grew but remained a simple magnetic bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the next three days (16-18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities increased
throughout the period to about 590 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled, with a slight
chance for isolated active periods on days one and two (16-17 May).
Day three (18 May) is expected to be quiet as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 095
Predicted 16 May-18 May 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 15 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01