Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N18E06)
remained quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (16 – 18
May).

III. Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 074
Predicted 16 May-18 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 15 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01