Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 956 (N02E48) continues to show rapid development in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. This region produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1537Z and is magnetically classified as a Dso beta-gamma sunspot group. Region 955 (S07W58) underwent slight decay over the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Further development of Region 956 could possibly lead to isolated M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May

• Class M 20/20/25
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 May 077
• Predicted 16 May-18 May 080/082/083
• 90 Day Mean 15 May 074

• V. Geomagnetic A Indices
• Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01