Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 15 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 609 (S03W05)
produced the only C-class event in the last 24 hours. This region
has almost doubled in white light coverage since yesterday and is
now an area of around 500 millionths. The daily consensus for this
developing D-type group has it as a magnetic beta-gamma
configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 609 has the potential of producing an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May

• Class M 40/40/40
• Class X 10/10/10
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 May 115
• Predicted 16 May-18 May 120/125/120
• 90 Day Mean 15 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 004/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 008/012-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05