Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14W14)
produced an M1/1f event at 0752Z associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity 468 km/s) and a CME visible on STEREO
Ahead and Behind. The geoeffectiveness of this CME is under review.
Region 1432 has grown into an Esi type spot group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1435 (S25W11) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels for the next three days with a slight
chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1432.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels reaching up
to severe storm levels at high latitudes. A sudden impulse was
observed at 15/1309Z (27 nT, as measured by the Boulder
magnetometer). ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 15/1240Z.
Solar wind velocities increased to around 800 km/s following the
shock. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 13/1810Z
reached a maximum flux of 469 pfu at 13/2045Z and ended at 15/0620Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels and up to minor storm
levels at high latitudes on 16 March due to the 13 March CME effects
and the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Activity is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled
conditions on 17 March and continue declining to mostly quiet
conditions on 18 March as CME and CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 40/30/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 111
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/020-018/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10