Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1169 (N17W60)
produced a M1 event at 15/0022Z. This region continues to maintain
its beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1166 (N12W91 is
making its transit around the west limb of the sun today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance of an M-class event from Region 1166 for the next two
days (16-17 March). On day three (18 March) activity is expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show solar wind velocities are averaging around 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 March).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 40/30/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 102
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01