Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind velocity at ACE showed a gradual decrease from 530 km/s to 475 km/s as effects from the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream wane. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (16 – 18 March).

III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Mar 069
• Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 007/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01