Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Mar 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New region 986 (S04W41) was numbered today. It was initially a Bxo Beta magnetic class, but has since deteriorated to an Alpha magnetic class.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on days one and two (16-17 March) due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (18 March) as the effects of the high speed stream subside.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Mar 070
• Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 010/010-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/40/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05