Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 1504
(S16W12) produced several C-class flares, the largest of which was a
C3/Sf flare at 1324Z. Although the magnetic configuration has
simplified from a delta to a beta-gamma, the area of the region has
increased. The remaining regions were relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are likely for the next three
days (16 June-18 June), primarily from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet until late on day 1 (16 June) to early
on day 2 (17 June). Activity is then expected to increase to active
levels with a chance for minor storm levels due to the combined
effects from both the 13 and 14 June CMEs. On day 3 (18 June)
conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 145
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/015-017/022-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/50/30