Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels during the
period. An impulsive M1/Sf flare was observed from Region 1236
(N17E58) at 14/2147Z. The region continued to rotate on to the disk,
and now appears as an E-type group with Beta-Delta magnetic
characteristics. Region 1234 (S15W22) produced a C3/1f at 15/1432Z.
The region doubled in area and spot count, but remained a simple
bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class events all three days of the period (16 –
18 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities steadily
decreased through the period from about 550 km/s to near 450 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field began the
period weakly south to about -3 nT. At 15/0900Z, Bz turned weakly
north to about +3 nT, and remained so through the balance of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through day one (16 June) and
the majority of day two (17 June). Late on day two, and through day
three (18 June), quiet to isolated active conditions are possible
due to glancing blow effects from the CME observed early on 14 June.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 102
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 005/005-006/007-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01