Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 June 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days (16-18 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor
storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200Z. An increase in
solar winds speed to 540 km/s was observed at ACE late in the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a slight chance for
an isolated period of minor storming on day 1 (16 June) due to
coronal hole effects. Conditions are expected to be quiet to
unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 2 (17 June) and
mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (18 June).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 070
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 010/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/40/20
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 60/50/30
Minor storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01