Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 892 (S06W85) produced two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 15/0431 UTC and a C1.4 at 15/0823 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. Major storm periods were observed between 15/0600 – 0900 UTC and 15/0900 – 1200 UTC. Activity was due to the effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 16 June. On 17 and 18 June, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Jun 076
• Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 075/075/080
• 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 006/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 020/025
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 010/015-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01