Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 15, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 15 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 776 (S05W64) produced a
C2.2 flare at 1843 UTC. Region 775 (N09W74) continues to show fair
flare potential but will rotate around the west limb on 16 June.
Region 776 will rotate off on 17 June. Two new regions were
numbered today. Newly numbered Region 778 (N07W38) developed into a
Cro beta group. Newly numbered Region 779 (S17E08) emerged and
developed rapidly into a Dai beta spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz was sustained
southward between -5 and -10 nT from 15/0500 to 15/1200 UTC. This
resulted in minor storm levels between 15/0600 and 15/0900 UTC.
Conditions have been at unsettled to active levels since 0900 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods on 16 June as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream rotates into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor to
major storming is possible on 17 June due to the effects of CME
activity associated with the C4 and C7 flares on 14 June.
Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active on 18

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Jun 095
  • Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 095/095/090
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 012/020-020/025-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/35/25
  • Minor storm 10/25/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/40/25
  • Minor storm 25/30/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/15/05

SpaceRef staff editor.