Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jun 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
June 15, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the day was a long duration C3 flare that originated from beyond the
southeast limb at 1457Z. Other minor C-class activity was
predominantly from Region 375 (N12, L=22) beyond the northwest limb.
Region 380 (S17W36) continues to decay in area coverage and is now
at 180 millionths. New Region 385 (N30E30) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The region beyond the southeast limb is expected to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have isolated M-class
potential. This region is likely old region 365 which was very
active during its last rotation.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
geomagnetic field has been disturbed by a combination of high speed
flow effects and weak shocks that were observed yesterday and today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions with isolated minor
storming possible early on day one. Activity on day two is expected
to be quiet to unsettled. Late on day three a coronal hole is due
to rotate into a geoeffective position with unsettled to active
conditions expected.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

  • Class M 35/30/30
  • Class X 15/10/05
  • Proton 10/10/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Jun 129
  • Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/125
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 018/032
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 020/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-012/015-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/35
  • Minor storm 10/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/40
  • Minor storm 20/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.