Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1256 (N09E34) was numbered early in the period and
is classified as Dro-beta. There are currently 7 spotted regions on
the visible disk, but all have remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to levels with a chance for C-class events for the next
three days (16-18 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (16-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 094
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 094/094/092
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01