Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1087 (N19W05) has slightly decreased in spot number and is
currently a Cso group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
solar wind monitor on the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream at 14/1900Z with solar wind speeds
increasing to 500 km/s early in the period and gradually decreasing
thereafter. Early in the period, Bt increased to 18nT while Bz
decreased to -16nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on day one (16 July) due to a coronal high speed stream. Quiet
levels are expected on days two and three (17-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 076
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 076/075/074
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01