Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares have occured.
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (16-18 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels over the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds decayed from around 530 km/s to
near 425 km/s throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 067
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01