Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 15, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 15 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N09, L=056)
produced an impulsive M1 flare at 14/2257Z. Region 786 continues to
be very active as it rotates around the west limb. It was the source
of a very long duration C2 flare between 15/0943 – 1715Z. An
associated CME was observed off the NW limb on LASCO imagery.
Another flare and CME from this region was in progress at the time
of issue. At 15/2100Z the flare was at the C3 x-ray level, and still
increasing. A 280 sfu Tenflare was also observed with this event.
Region 790 (S10W67) exhibited growth and developed a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration during the period. It produced occasional low
C-class x-ray flares. The rest of the visible disk and limb was

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 786 is still producing C-class activity from behind the west
limb. Flare activity from this region will subside over the next
day. Region 790 is expected to produce occasional C-class flares.
Very low activity levels are possible on 18 July as this region
rotates around the west limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near
400 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on
14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z. The proton flux
gradually decreased to near 60 pfu by the end of the period. The
greater that 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CMEs
associated with the major flare activity on 13 and 14 July, may
generate active to minor geomagnetic storm periods on 16 and 17
July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to persist
through 16 July. A new influx of particles from today’s CMEs may
prolong the existing proton event.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

  • Class M 15/15/05
  • Class X 05/01/01
  • Proton 99/30/05
  • PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Jul 087
  • Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 085/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 007/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 020/025-015/020-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 50/40/20
  • Minor storm 30/20/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 50/45/25
  • Minor storm 35/25/10
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/01

SpaceRef staff editor.