Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jul 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jul 15 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z

to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 30

(N18W00) produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008UTC associated with a

1900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, and a magnetic crochet

(based on Boulder USGS magnetometer data). This region also produced

frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 15/1155 UTC associated

with a Type II radio sweep. Region 30 showed significant growth in

its trailer spots during the past few days including the formation

of multiple magnetic delta configurations. The remaining active

regions were unremarkable. New Regions 35 (S09E63) and 36 (S07E76)

were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate. Region 30 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares.

Region 30 could also produce another major flare during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to increase to quiet to active levels on 16 July due to

recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity may increase to active to

minor storm levels on 17 July following today’s X-flare. A greater

than 10 MeV proton event is expected to begin early on 16 July, also

due to today’s X-flare.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

Class M    75/75/75

Class X    15/15/15

Proton     50/10/10

PCAF       Red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Jul 160

Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  160/165/170

90 Day Mean        15 Jul 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  001/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  012/012-020/020-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/40/35

Minor storm           15/20/15

Major-severe storm    05/10/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/45/40

Minor storm           20/25/20

Major-severe storm    10/15/10