Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1401 (N17E60) has been the most productive region,
producing multiple C-class events. The largest event of the period
was C2 x-ray flare from around the west limb near old Region 1391
(N12, L=013). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, with Region 1403 (S19E29) being numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (16 – 18 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 January) and increase
to quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 -18 January)
as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 134
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01