Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 January 2011

By SpaceRef Editor
January 15, 2011
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New region 1147 (N24E80)
produced a C1 flare at 15/1419Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (16 – 18 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at Boulder between 15/1200 – 1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (16 – 18
January).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 080
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.