Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
January 15, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1040 (N29W41) produced two long duration flares, a
B8.1 flare 14/2139Z and a C1.3 flare at 15/0841Z. Region 1040 has
remained stable and is classified as a Eki-beta with 16 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels for the next 24 hours. B-class flares and
isolated C-class flares are expected. There is a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (16 January). On day
two (17 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due to the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (18
January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 085
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 085/084/082
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/05
Minor storm 01/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.