Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE declined from a peak of approximately 760 km/s to 650 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain unsettled on days 1 and 2 (16-17 Jan) under the waning influence of the coronal hole. Infrequent, brief periods of active to minor storm conditions will still be possible at high latitudes. Day 3 (18 Jan) should bring a return to quiet conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Jan 074
• Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 014/016
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 014/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/10
• Minor storm 20/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01