Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 938 (N02E35) is the only spotted region on the visible disk. This region produced multiple B-class flares today along with a C1/Sf event occurring at 15/0308Z. A decay in the sunspot area was observed during the period. Observations indicate that there is some magnetic complexity in the leading portion of this beta sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Isolated C-class events from Region 938 remain possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective at approximately 15/0700Z. Middle and high latitudes experienced major storm conditions between 15/1200 and 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels on 16 and 17 January. Isolated minor to major storm conditions are possible on these two days due to a recurrent coronal hole. A return to predominantly unsettled levels is expected on 18 January as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
- Class M 10/05/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Jan 082
- Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/30
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 15/15/10
