Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Two new regions were numbered today; Region 847 (S09W08) which produced a C1 flare at 15/1445Z and Region 846 (N05W30) which has developed from a plage region into a Dso Beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on 16 January due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 17 – 18 January.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Jan 081
• Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/015-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/20
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01