Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Two new regions were numbered today; Region 847 (S09W08) which produced a C1 flare at 15/1445Z and Region 846 (N05W30) which has developed from a plage region into a Dso Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on 16 January due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 17 – 18 January.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Jan 081
- Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/015-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/25/20
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01