Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 15, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2003
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SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Activity was limited to only
one low C-class event during the last 24 hours. A new region was
numbered today as Region 260 (N14E77).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Jan 150
  • Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 140/135/135
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.