Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2003
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Activity was limited to only
one low C-class event during the last 24 hours. A new region was
numbered today as Region 260 (N14E77).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Jan 150
- Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 140/135/135
- 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 005/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/30
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
