Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. ACE solar wind speeds averaged around 580 km/s as Earth continues under the influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream pattern. The interplanetary Bz ranged between +4/-4 nT. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 16 February. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 17-18 February.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Feb 070
• Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 009/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 009/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/05/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01