Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. An isolated minor storm period was observed at middle latitudes between 15/0300 – 0600 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE continues to be elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 16 February.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Feb 074
• Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 016/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01