Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Feb 2006
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 854 (S07E23) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of an isolated active period on 16 February. On 17 and 18 February, mostly quiet conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Feb 079
• Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01